You see… I don’t get it.

Not the market. That part actually makes sense.

What I don’t get is how people ignored it.

Because this didn’t happen in a day. Not in a headline. Not in a single candle.

This has been weeks.

Weeks of leadership deteriorating.

Weeks of defensive rotation creeping in.

Weeks of a tape that just doesn’t reward clean, trend-following behavior.

And during that time… people laughed at it.

Brushed it off. Called it noise.

That’s the part I don’t get.

That’s the part worth studying…..

It’s easy to say this is a data disagreement.

It’s not.

Data is everywhere.

You can find anything you want if you’re looking hard enough.

That’s the game most people are playing.

Not finding truth, but finding support.

And that’s where incentives come in.

Because incentives quietly shape everything.

If your business depends on being bullish, you’ll find bullish data.
If your brand is built on calling tops, you’ll find bearish data.
If you need attention, you’ll find extreme data.

Not because you’re lying outright.

But because you’re human.

That’s why I keep coming back to one simple idea.

The market doesn’t have an incentive.

It doesn’t need to be right.

It doesn’t need to sell anything.

It doesn’t need engagement.

It just is.

And if you actually slow down and listen to it, it’s been saying the same thing for a while now.

Go back with me for a second.

And before you do… don’t trust me.

Go scroll through my blogs from the past two months.

Fact check it. Then come back.

End of January, we talked about rotation and how it wasn’t something to dismiss.

It mattered more than people wanted to admit.

Mid February, the tone shifted. 

Leadership started to feel… needy. Not broken, but not clean either.

A week later, we called it what it was.

A push and pull. Strong underneath, weak up top. A frustrating balance.

Then the message got even clearer.

The boring stuff was working. The stuff everyone wants to own… wasn’t.

And by early March, it felt like there was no real place to hide.

Just different flavors of messy.

That’s not hindsight. That was the message in real time.

And I’ll be honest, I lost money in the process.

As my positioning adjusted incrementally, I got stopped out of areas that were working… until they weren’t.

Don’t mistake this for “I’m perfect.”

This is just me being honest.

Something it seems most people avoid.

And look, the permabears don’t bother me.

They’ve always been there. You can’t invest in the end of the world anyway.

What bothers me are the people who know better.

The ones who talk about weight of the evidence, preach data-driven research, build their brand on being “objective”… and then look the other way when the data gets uncomfortable.

That’s what does damage. Not to me, but to the craft.

So before you buy into any take, any chart, any “insight”… just ask one question.

What does this person need to be true?

Because once you understand the incentive, the narrative starts to make a lot more sense.

As for me, I’m playing a different game.

I’m not trying to win a week or a headline.

I’m trying to build something over years.

That means no forced takes, no defending a narrative, no selling urgency.

Just being honest about what the market is actually saying.

And right now… it’s still messy.

That hasn’t changed.

And that’s fine.

One of the biggest advantages we have as retail traders is we don’t have to do anything.

We can wait. Let the market resolve.

And when it does, we’ll be ready.

Because we followed the message of the market.

Not the message of a sales quota.

Anyways, that’s my two cents.

🎥 Thompson Two Cents Live

Now that the messy market is obvious… you don’t need me to prove that anymore.

So this week, I focused on what actually matters next.

So this week, I focused on what I’ll be looking for when the market bottoms.

Because bottoms, much like your favorite chain restaurant when you’re traveling, tend to follow a recipe.

Check it out.

🚀 Throw it on 1.5x speed and let it rip.

👍 Give it a like. It’s the easiest way to show me some love.  

The Sunday Stalk List

Tomorrow, I’ll break down more of what I’m buying in the Sunday Stalk List.

If you want clean charts, clear setups, and tactical insights, this one’s for you.

It hits your inbox every Sunday so you know exactly what to stalk for the week ahead.

Go check out last week’s post and get on the list.

Cheers,

Larry Thompson, CMT CPA

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