- HostileCharts
- Posts
- No Place to Hide
Things Changed This Week
This market has been getting messier for a while.
We’ve talked about maintaining a defensive posture, and for a while we were still able to hide in those defensive names.
This week, that changed.
The bears finally landed a clean punch.
That doesn’t mean we need to jump straight to doom and gloom.
But I’m also not going to pretend this is a clean, healthy tape.
Intellectual honesty is what I’m building HostileCharts on.
And the truth right now is not what most want to hear.
So let’s get into it.
A Clean Punch
Like I mentioned, intellectual honesty.
The bears landed a clean one this week.
If you look at the market through equal weight, which better represents the market of stocks, the picture becomes clearer.
Energy was one of the only places holding up.
Energy leadership by itself is rarely the sign of a strong, healthy equity market.
One of the reasons I remained bullish, but realistic about this being a needy bull market, was that rotation was still giving investors somewhere to go.
If technology struggled, breadth could pick up the slack.
If the usual growth leaders stalled, defensive groups like materials, energy, health care, or industrials could keep things afloat.
It was not perfect, but it was workable.
The market of stocks was still offering some cover.
This week, that cover got thinner.
The very groups that had been helping stabilize the tape got hit as well.
That is what makes this feel different.
It is not just that MVPs were off the field, now the backups are getting tired too.
When offensive leadership is weak and defensive rotation begins to struggle as well, the market starts to feel like there is no place to hide.
Patience Is a Position
A lot of people struggle in markets like this because they feel like they always need to be doing something.
But a shrinking buy list is information.
If fewer setups meet your criteria, that is not a failure of process.
That’s the process doing its job.
In a market like this, patience isn’t laziness and cash isn’t cowardice.
It’s simply an honest response to the environment.
And the reality is, a lot of people in this business need you active.
They need you clicking, trading, reacting, buying, selling, and constantly searching for the next thing to do.
Engagement is the product. Activity is the business model.
Investment is different. Investment requires patience.
It requires saying, “I don’t have to swing at this pitch.”
It requires admitting when the market is not offering much edge.
That’s where I want to live.
I’m not interested in forcing bullishness just because it sounds good.
My Two Cents
For now, the honest read is simple.
Most people just don’t want to hear it.
The market is messy and there is less room to hide.
I’m perfectly fine waiting to see if the bulls can throw a counterpunch.
We don’t need to stay active just because someone else needs our engagement.
Anyway, that’s my two cents.
ALL GAS NO BRAKES \ EP. 8
I went through some of my Buy List Yesterday.
🚀 Throw it on 1.5x speed and let it rip.
👍 Give it a like. It’s the easiest way to show me some love.
FREE - The Sunday Stalk List | Ep. 39
Tomorrow, I’ll break down more of what I’m buying in the Sunday Stalk List.
If you want clean charts, clear setups, and tactical insights, this one’s for you.
It hits your inbox every Sunday so you know exactly what to stalk for the week ahead.
Cheers,
Larry Thompson, CMT CPA