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Seek and You Will Find
The markets are beautiful.
A puzzle that never has all its pieces—and that’s the fun of it.
Every day brings a plethora of new data to analyze.
New opportunities to keep solving the unsolvable.
But as market-related data continues to grow exponentially, the overall performance of fund managers and traders hasn’t improved.
How is that possible?
We have the bestest, fastest data ever.
We have computers capable of running complex calculations in seconds.
We can build sophisticated models to forecast thousands of scenarios.
Yet, the results haven’t changed.
It’s simple…
“Seek and you will find.”
These words, spoken by Jesus during the Sermon on the Mount, still ring true today. Seek, and you will find.
Want to believe this is THE TOP? I’ve got a stat for ya.
Want to believe the Bull Market is just getting started? I’ve got a stat for that too.
In a world of unlimited data, you will always find what you’re looking for.
Two Takes on Technology
Take Technology, for example. The largest sector of the S&P 500, making up roughly a third of the index, hit new all-time highs (ATHs) this week.
But, believe it or not, there’s more than one way to look at this—thanks to data and humans interpreting it the way they want to see it.
The Bears might say: "Semiconductors haven’t confirmed the new highs, and look to be building a top on an absolute and relative basis ….. I remain cautious."
The Bulls might counter: "This is just intra-sector rotation from semiconductors into software. Rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market."
So, who’s right?
In truth, the data is just the data - how you interpret it and act on it is what matters.
One Antidote to Unlimited Data
The caution from warning signals in a Bull Market is not often rewarded.
Both perspectives—bullish or bearish—are valid, but they must be applied within the context of the primary trend.
In a Bull Market, you are more likely to be rewarded for thinking opportunistically. Recognize the warning signs but don’t act on them prematurely. Instead, wait for price confirmation based on a systematic approach.
In a Bear Market, caution is rewarded more often. Even so, there are pockets of opportunity that deserve attention to deliver outperformance.
The antidote to unlimited data is context.
It’s not about knowing everything; it’s about understanding what matters most within the bigger picture.
Right now, we’re in a Bull Market. The trend is up, and price is the final arbiter.
Interpreting the data through that lense and acting accordingly is key.
Stay Bullish, friends.
If you enjoy this content, consider sharing it with a friend who would benefit from following along.
Your support means a lot and helps me grow while continuing to improve the quality of what I share.
Cheers,
Larry Thompson, CMT CPA