Energy Experts Everywhere

It never fails.
Energy rips for a few days, usually on the back of a geopolitical headline, and suddenly every dormant energy expert re-emerges.

Each one has perfectly timed insights, freshly crafted narratives, and bold predictions about “what’s next.”

It gives me a headache.

Just look at the chart - we’ve seen this before.
Energy at the bottom of the range, big move… then failure.

It’s been the same story for 3 years.
In fact, I wrote about this exact thing almost a year ago.
It’s worth a read.

Long story short:
Nobody knows what’s next.

But talking about energy implications makes people feel smart, and more importantly—it drives engagement.

Reminder: Most people online are in this game for attention. Not returns.

Find the folks who care more about price than narratives.
They’re rare. Hold on to them.

Two of my favorites are Steve Strazza and Jason Perz - they both have been all over the intermarket implications that could lead to a higher energy move.

All done using PRICE - not overconfident narratives.

Yes….Energy had a big week.
Yes…Crude oil bounced.
Yes….. $XLE ( ▲ 1.74% ) deserves some respect.

But it also earned the right to be ignored.
And that’s usually when it starts mattering again.

One week of strength doesn’t make a trend.
It just gives people permission to tell stories about one.

We know how these moves start:
Short covering, rebalancing, some rotation flows.
It’s not leadership yet. It’s just… movement.

The charts a mess sitting smack dab in the middle of a range, the move off the low was a pretty one but not one that yet signifies anything.

As you guys know, I will continue to let price lead the way. With this messy range I want to see continued constructive price action.

Price getting back above the 200-day.
Price getting back above the recent high AVWAP.
RSI staying above 50 on dips.
Two or three solid weeks of follow-through.

Then we can talk trend.

Until then?
It’s on my radar. But it’s not flashing.

I don’t need to be first.
I need to be on the right side of the move when it matters.

Energy doesn’t need hype. It needs follow-through.
If that shows up, I’ll show up too.

Until then, let the experts keep guessing.
I’ll stick to reacting.

I was on this morning with my friends over at Stock Market TV.

JC and Steve have been mentors from afar for years and over time, I’m lucky to now call them friends.

I’ve always respected how they let price do the talking.

I come in around the 28 minute mark to talk charts.

Put it on 1.5x speed and let it rip.

Be on the lookout this Sunday for the next edition of my newest research column.

The Sunday Stalk List

It’ll hit your inbox every Sunday.
If you’re not getting it yet, reach out and I’ll make sure you’re on the list.

This week I’m going to break down key risk levels in the Nasdaq 100 $QQQ ( ▼ 1.26% ) and S&P 500 $SPY ( ▼ 1.12% ) for IF the market starts to turn lower.

We always want to have the plan in advance.

Cheers,

Larry Thompson, CMT CPA

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