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Honesty Matters
One thing I want to be very clear about is what I’m trying to build this platform on.
Honesty and data dependence.
My goal isn’t to create the illusion that there are always trades to be made or that every environment is equally profitable.
Markets don’t work that way.
When the market offers opportunity, we lean in.
When the market gets messy, we lean back.
The data dictates the posture.
One of the biggest edges retail traders have is the ability to step back.
We don’t have investment committees or quarterly performance reviews forcing activity.
We can choose when to fight.
The best fighters in the world don’t take every matchup.
They pick the right ones.
Retail traders have that same advantage in markets, but too often we give it away.
The money doesn’t spend any differently because you made it in a messy market.
Trust me, I learned that the hard way earlier in my career.
I’d see a few charts going up, ignore the thousands that were sideways or falling, and convince myself I needed to stay active.
That usually ended the same way, overtrading messy markets.
The reality is many people who built a following around sharing trades are almost forced to keep the activity high.
If the content is constant trades, the pressure is to keep producing trades.
That’s not the route I want to take.
My goal is to keep people engaged through pragmatic analysis.
The work is still being done.
I’m still reviewing hundreds of charts every week. Breadth, leadership, sector rotation, relative strength, all of it.
But the message of what to do has changed.
For some reason people equate the amount of work being done with the number of trades being placed.
In reality those are two completely different things.
You can do an enormous amount of work and still arrive at the conclusion that the best move is patience.
If someone is acting the exact same way regardless of what the market is doing, it raises a fair question.
Are they responding to the data of the market, or are they glued to the activity of trading?
The deeper you dig, the more often you realize it’s the latter.
And that’s exactly the trap I want to avoid.
Let’s get into it.
The Work
Like I said, the work hasn’t stopped - but the message has changed.
$SPY - S&P 500
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see how messy this price action is.
Is this really the spot where I want to get super active and start swinging for the fences?
Probably not.
Sometimes the pushback is, “But Larry, there are still areas going up.”
Sure. Thanks, Captain Obvious.
Energy and utilities look good, so yes, we own some.
But two sectors working out of eleven isn’t a healthy market.
It’s the definition of a messy one.
Energy and utilities are green…..GREAT!
Everything else looks like dogsh*t.
My Two Cents
Messy markets test discipline.
They tempt traders to stay active even when the opportunity set has deteriorated.
But retail traders have an edge that many professionals don’t.
We can step back.
We can trade smaller.
We can choose our fights.
Don’t give up that edge.
Anyway, that’s my two cents.
A Deeper Dive On Messy Market Methods
If you want to go deeper, I walked through my pragmatic strategy for messy markets.
I break down exactly how I approach these environments and the specific signals I’m watching for the data to start improving.
🚀 Throw it on 1.5x speed and let it rip.
👍 Give it a like. It’s the easiest way to show me some love.
FREE - The Sunday Stalk List | Ep. 40
Tomorrow, I’ll break down more of what I’m buying in the Sunday Stalk List.
If you want clean charts, clear setups, and tactical insights, this one’s for you.
It hits your inbox every Sunday so you know exactly what to stalk for the week ahead.
Cheers,
Larry Thompson, CMT CPA