Not every week needs to be a market deep dive so this week I’ll keep it simple.

I’m just going to show you what I actually did.

I covered the backdrop in the weekly video, but this is about execution.

Real trades, real exposure, and how they fit into my process.

We’ve already been putting money to work near the lows.

This is a continuation of that, adding to positions and initiating a few new ones where the risk is clearly defined.

I’m not chasing new highs, I already have exposure in many of those areas.

I’m focused on some areas I have less exposure and aren’t extended.

Consolidation within a structural uptrend

This is one of my favorite types of setups.

You’ve got a longer-term uptrend, followed by a messy, time-based consolidation that hasn’t resolved yet.

Most people ignore these because they’re not “doing anything.” That’s usually where the opportunity is.

And the reality is, these messy charts wear people out.

Multiple failed breakouts, choppy price action, nothing clean. That’s the point.

• Price working back above the all-time high anchored VWAP

• Prior trend still intact on a bigger timeframe

• Failed moves that shake out weak hands

Instead of waiting for the obvious breakout, I’m positioning in anticipation of it, with defined risk.

There are newer ways to approach this.

Using something like the all-time high AVWAP lets you get involved earlier, rather than waiting for confirmation once it’s obvious.

If it holds above that level, I stay. If it fails, I’m out.

That’s the trade.

Bottom fishing with rules

This one is different.

This is not leadership.

This is a catch-up trade.

And that’s intentional.

Portfolio construction

There’s clear dispersion under the hood right now.

Semis have been strong. Software has not.

So instead of chasing what’s already worked, this is about adding exposure to an area that’s lagged but is starting to stabilize.

This is not a breakout trade.

It’s mean reversion.

It complements leadership exposure rather than replacing it.

The setup

Price action is starting to shift.

• Bullish RSI divergence, price makes a lower low but momentum does not

• Selling pressure is still there, but it’s slowing down

• RSI working back toward 50, attempting to flip from resistance to support

Call it a double bottom, a diamond, whatever you want.

It’s a bottoming process.

I’m anchoring VWAP to the lowest RSI point, essentially the moment of peak selling pressure.

• Hold above it, I stay in

• Lose it, I’m out

Simple.

This is what I’d call a good poker hand.

Not a prediction.

A defined setup with favorable risk/reward.

Both trades come down to the same thing.

Defined risk.

• URA, leaning into strength with a level to lean against

• IGV, leaning into weakness with a level to lean against

Different expressions, same process.

I’m not trying to predict outcomes.

I’m putting capital to work where the risk is clearly defined and the upside is worth it.

If the levels hold, I stay involved.

If they don’t, I move on.

Not every week needs to be a macro deep dive.

Sometimes it’s just about showing the plays.

This is what that looks like for me right now. A mix of strength and selective mean reversion, both grounded in risk management.

Anyway, that’s my two cents.

Check it out.

🚀 Throw it on 1.5x speed and let it rip.

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The Sunday Stalk List

Tomorrow, I’ll break down more of what I’m buying in the Sunday Stalk List.

If you want clean charts, clear setups, and tactical insights, this one’s for you.

It hits your inbox every Sunday so you know exactly what to stalk for the week ahead.

Cheers,

Larry Thompson, CMT CPA

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